Neural Network English Soccer Tipster

Month	Year	Number of Tips	Profit	EV%
February	2008	14	4.250	30.357%
March	2008	8	-0.700	-8.750%
Total		22	3.550	16.136%

How the figures are produced

The figures are complied using a Neural Network, the Network has a number of input terminals, a number of output terminals and some artificial Neurons connected to inputs and outputs. Numbers may be entered on the Input terminals and read from the Output terminals. The Network can be trained to associate a pattern of numbers in the inputs to another pattern on the outputs. In fact it can associate a huge number of different input patterns to output patterns. What’s more if the Network sees an input pattern it’s never encountered before it can make a very good guess at the corresponding output.

How does this help us? We construct a Network with three outputs. Those outputs represent the outcome of a soccer match:

Output 1 -Probability of a Home Team win.
Output 2 -Probability of an Away Team win.
Output 3 -Probability of a Draw.

We now add our inputs, we add one input for each feature of a Soccer match we think might be relevant in determining the outcome. For example ‘Number of matches won this season by home team’ would certainly be useful but ‘Strip colour of away team’ would not be useful. We then present to the Network the (useful) input parameters along with the result of the Match. After seeing examples of this soccer data the network learns to associate particular sets of inputs as being more likely to lead to a Home win (or Away win, or Draw). In detail the inputs used by Victor are:

Home Team ELO Ranking, continuously calculated since start of data.
Away Team ELO Ranking, continuously calculated since start of data.
Home Team ELO Ranking Medium Term
Away Team ELO Ranking Medium Term
Home Team ELO Ranking Short Term
Away Team ELO Ranking Short Term
Home Team Points won in last four weeks
Home Team Points won in last ten Weeks
Home Team Points won in last thirty weeks
Away Team Points won in last four weeks
Away Team Points won in last ten weeks
Away Team Points won in last thirty weeks
Home Team Ratio of Home wins to Away Wins
Home Team Ratio of Draws to Total Matches
Away Team Ratio of Home wins to Away Wins
Away Team Ratio of Draws to Total Matches
Home Team Average goals For in last 10 matches
Home Team Average goals For in last 40 matches
Home Team Average goals Against in last 10 matches
Home Team Average goals Against in last 40 matches
Away Team Average goals For in last 10 matches
Away Team Average goals For in last 40 matches
Away Team Average goals Against in last 10 matches
Away Team Average goals Against in last 40 matches
Home Team Percentage of Home games won in one year
Away Team Percentage of Away games won in one year
Home Team Home Draw Percentage
Away Team Away Draw Percentage
Home Team relative performance vs Away team, last two matches
Week number in season

When the network is trained ten years worth of soccer results from the main four English divisions are presented to the network one thousand times. It takes about twenty minutes to do this.

Victor the Predictor V2.02
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Neural Network English Soccer Tipster

Victor the Predictor is an English soccer odds predictor. Victor makes his predictions using a Machine Learning technique called Neural Network. The Network is trained on the last 10 years of soccer results and no statistical analysis or human opinion is involved.
Whilst Victor's predictions are usually in good agreement with Betfair markets, things happen in the real world which Victor knows nothing about, for example a key player is injured. This will impact the betting, so a large difference between a prediction and a market doesn't necessarily represent a good betting opportunity.
Victor's performance tends to improve as the season advances, as each new weeks' results forces adjustments to his neural network. However, towards the end of the season as cups/promotions/relegations loom, the predictions become more difficult again. Victor finds much more consistency and predictability in the Premiership than in the other divisions.
Find out more about How the figures are produced. What's new in Verison 2.00. Find out more about What the figures mean.

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Barclays Premiership

Match	Date	Home Odds	BetFair	Diff%	Away Odds	BetFair	Diff%	Draw Odds	BetFair	Diff%
Aston Villa vs Bolton	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	1.60	1.84	8.0	7.45	5.30	-5.4	4.13	3.65	-3.2
Blackburn vs Portsmouth	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.07	2.10	0.7	4.47	3.95	-2.9	3.59	3.55	-0.3
Man City vs Burnley	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	1.49	1.34	-7.7	7.13	13.00	6.3	4.84	5.30	1.8
Tottenham vs Sunderland	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	1.56	1.58	0.6	7.13	7.20	0.1	4.32	4.20	-0.7
Wolves vs Arsenal	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 17:30	4.81	10.00	10.8	1.86	1.40	-17.6	3.39	5.20	10.3
Hull vs Stoke	Sun, 08 Nov 2009, 13:30	3.29	3.05	-2.4	2.52	2.62	1.6	3.37	3.35	-0.2
West Ham vs Everton	Sun, 08 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.41	2.62	3.4	3.43	3.00	-4.2	3.85	3.40	-3.5
Wigan vs Fulham	Sun, 08 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.75	2.34	-6.4	2.83	3.50	6.7	3.80	3.35	-3.5
Chelsea vs Man Utd	Sun, 08 Nov 2009, 16:00	2.36	2.06	-6.2	3.24	4.40	8.2	4.86	3.40	-8.8
Liverpool vs Birmingham	Mon, 09 Nov 2009, 20:00	1.31	1.41	5.3	12.16	11.00	-0.9	5.23	4.80	-1.7

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The Championship

Match	Date	Home Odds	BetFair	Diff%	Away Odds	BetFair	Diff%	Draw Odds	BetFair	Diff%
Swansea vs Cardiff	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 12:45	2.62	2.60	-0.3	3.01	3.15	1.5	3.51	3.30	-1.8
Blackpool vs Scunthorpe	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	1.91	1.75	-4.9	4.43	5.50	4.4	3.80	3.90	0.7
C Palace vs Middlesbrough	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.44	2.92	6.8	3.17	2.64	-6.4	3.60	3.50	-0.8
Leicester vs West Brom	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.21	2.78	9.3	3.63	2.82	-7.9	3.55	3.40	-1.2
Newcastle vs Peterborough	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	1.60	1.48	-5.0	6.97	8.20	2.2	3.79	4.70	5.1
Nottm Forest vs Bristol City	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.23	2.18	-1.1	3.40	4.00	4.5	3.66	3.35	-2.5
Plymouth vs Doncaster	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.68	2.68	0.0	2.68	3.00	4.0	3.70	3.30	-3.3
Reading vs Ipswich	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	1.83	2.50	14.6	5.02	3.15	-11.8	3.94	3.40	-4.0
Sheff Wed vs QPR	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.61	2.86	3.4	2.65	2.66	0.2	3.81	3.55	-1.9
Watford vs Preston	Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.36	2.60	3.8	3.16	3.05	-1.2	3.96	3.45	-3.7
Barnsley vs Sheff Utd	Mon, 09 Nov 2009, 19:45	2.32	2.82	7.7	3.17	2.82	-3.9	3.54	3.35	-1.6

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Coca-Cola League One

Match	Date	Home Odds	Away Odds	Draw Odds
Huddersfield vs Wycombe	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 12:05	1.77	5.50	4.14
Brentford vs Millwall	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	3.41	2.39	3.19
Bristol Rovers vs Carlisle	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.03	3.99	4.07
Charlton vs MK Dons	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.72	3.05	3.31
Colchester vs Exeter	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	1.61	6.62	3.99
Gillingham vs Oldham	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.89	2.82	3.57
Hartlepool vs L Orient	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	1.97	4.79	3.97
Norwich vs Tranmere	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	1.60	7.12	4.24
Walsall vs Stockport	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.05	4.29	3.92
Yeovil vs Southend	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.54	3.05	3.59
Southampton vs Brighton	Sun, 15 Nov 2009, 16:30	1.63	6.43	4.38

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Coca-Cola League Two

Match	Date	Home Odds	Away Odds	Draw Odds
Accrington S vs Dag and Red	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.99	2.95	3.26
Aldershot vs Macclesfield	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.15	4.14	3.50
Barnet vs Hereford	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.09	4.11	3.72
Bradford vs Bournemouth	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.08	4.65	3.29
Bury vs Notts Co	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.23	4.55	3.12
Crewe vs Morecambe	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.32	3.61	3.58
Darlington vs Burton	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	3.21	2.54	3.45
Lincoln vs Cheltenham	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.15	3.85	3.64
Northampton vs Grimsby	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	1.93	5.77	3.30
Port Vale vs Rotherham	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	2.95	2.94	3.27
Rochdale vs Chesterfield	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	1.96	5.77	2.95
Shrewsbury vs Torquay	Sat, 14 Nov 2009, 15:00	1.85	6.06	3.28

Neural Networks built: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 08:40. BetFair Markets scanned: Sat, 07 Nov 2009, 08:59

Winnings from the suggested tips

What the figures mean

What's New in Version 2.00

How the figures are produced

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